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National & World Ag News Headlines |
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Quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report Hits Cautionary Note
USAgNet - 07/27/2016
The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, issued by USDA on June 24, showed moderately higher June inventories across-the-board--all hogs and pigs (+2%), breeding inventory (+1%)--and lower producer farrowing intentions for both the summer quarter (-2%,
June-August) and the fall quarter (-1% September-November).
The report's very large spring pig crop (+3%, year over year) serves as a flashing yellow light to the U.S. processing sector. Although the size of spring pig crop is not an absolute record, it is a record for the quarter. The expected 3-percent increase in pork
production resulting from increased slaughter, coupled with 4% more beef and 3% more broiler meat, may present a challenge for the sector in pricing products.
U.S commercial pork production in the third quarter of this year is expected to be more than 6 billion pounds, a volume 3.4% larger than a year ago. Third-quarter-prices of live equivalent 51-52% lean hogs are expected to average $53-$55.
For the fourth-quarter, pork production is expected to be 6.6 billion pounds, almost 3% greater than a year ago. Hog prices in the fourth quarter are expected to average $41-$45, about 4% lower than a year ago, and likely below break-even levels for most
U.S. hog operations.
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